The A+5 study belongs to the STSE ARCTIC+ cluster of projects and specifically contributes to the Year of Polar Prediction (YoPP). A+5 is constructing a flexible system for Arctic Mission Benefit Analysis (ArcMBA) that evaluates in a mathematically rigorous fashion the observational constraints imposed by individual and groups of EO (and in situ) data products in using the quantitative network design (QND) approach. The assessment of the observation impact (added value) is performed in terms of the uncertainty reduction in seasonal predictions of sea ice area, sea ice and snow volume. Response functions for observations and target quantities are computed by the sea ice-ocean model of the Max Planck Institute (MPIOM) in a global setup with focus over the Arctic.

The project started in June 2016 and has a duration of 18 months. First, preliminary assessments address CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness and sea ice freeboard products provided by AWI. The observation impact is quantified through reduction in the uncertainty for predicted sea ice conditions over three regions along the Northern Sea Route (see Figure). The study further plans a systematic assessment of the impact that characteristics of a synthetic snow depth product (sampling frequency and accuracy) will have on the performance of sea ice predictions. For more information see http://arctic-plus.inversion-lab.com/ .